sitting on the 405

government healthcare stupidity

2009-12-19T18:55:00.002-06:00

remember a while back when I asked the question:

"If the government didn't promise to subsidize the digital TV box for $40, would the price be lower than $40?"

well, the government has once again stepped up to the plate and the bill that is poised to pass through the senate includes a subsidy for "low income health insurance". People who have low income and are FORCED to buy health insurance will get a subsidy from the government for their health insurance.

So what incentive do the health insurance companies have to lower their prices below the subsidy level? NONE! They know that they will get at least a certain amount from the government no matter what, so the prices of health insurance will not drop below that point.

Health care reform is necessary... I totally agree with that. But instead of giving the insurance companies a guaranteed income, we should be taking down the barriers to insurance.

One thing that needs to be removed is the limitation on insurance companies that doesn't allow them to sell insurance across state lines. A little known fact is that you can't go out of state to buy insurance. You can only buy insurance in the state that you live in. Does your friend in Texas have an awesome health insurance company? Too bad... unless you live in Texas, you can't buy it!

Why? because a couple of congressman back in the forties thought that health insurance companies should be exempt from anti-trust laws and that the states should regulate health insurance. (McCarran-Ferguson Act)

Result: The states have created 50 different sets of laws of how insurance in that state works. Some states require that acupuncture, massage, and various other things be included in every health insurance policy sold in that state. But no 2 states are the same - so you have to go by the laws in your state.

Don't want acupuncture in your health insurance policy? If your state requires it, you have no choice - you HAVE to pay for acupuncture coverage.

The current health care reform bill doesn't address any of these issues and therefore sucks. It sucks on many more levels, but that's all I have to say about it today :)

Good day!

Not my cat...

2009-10-31T11:23:00.003-05:00

Dizzy had a check up today - this is one of the vet cats:

Seriously?

2009-10-18T01:01:00.001-05:00

Rational Religion?

2009-10-07T02:08:00.002-05:00

This is something that has bothered me for some time... (I was reminded by an old ST:TNG episode) ST:TNG = Star Trek: The Next Generation for all you non-Trekkies :)

Why do people expect religion to be rational?

By definition, religion is irrational. A religion is based on faith - which is accepting that something is true/exists without proof.

Another way to look at it - Religion is the way that humans bridge the gap between the known and unknown. Since the unknown (what happens after death, for example) cannot be known, acceptance of any explanation for the unknown must be taken on faith or at least a leap of logic (which can be faulty). Faith is that bridge in most religions.

Now don't get me wrong - I'm not anti-religion. Religion isn't a bad thing. Just don't expect it to be logical or rational. Nor will a religious argument be won with logic.

Muslim versus Jew versus Christian? Interestingly, they are all related religions. Jews were the first major monotheistic religion. Early Christians were an offshoot of the Jews - Christians believe Jesus (who was a Jew) is the messiah. Jews don't believe that the messiah has come yet. That's the major difference. Even their holy books are the same. The christian bible is made up of the old testament (the Jewish Torah) plus the adventures of Jesus (the new testament).

Islam is just Christianity/Judaism from a different perspective. The Koran has all the same people from the Torah and the Bible, just in different roles.

Ah... but here's the ironic part... i'm waxing logical about religion :)

Is it time for elevensies?

2009-09-23T14:20:00.002-05:00

Is it time for elevensies?

Second breakfast, maybe?

UN Monetary Monumentally bad ideas...

2009-09-09T01:11:00.005-05:00

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/6152204/UN-wants-new-global-currency-to-replace-dollar.html

Ok... so I'm going to stick around here for a bit... on to my rant!

Quoting from the above article...

The proposals would also imply that surplus nations such as China and Germany should stimulate their economies further in order to cut their own imbalances, rather than, as in the present system, deficit nations such as the UK and US having to take the main burden of readjustment.

So we should tell the folks that have been working their national budgets rationally to give up their saving and "stimulate their economies"? (BTW... "stimulate their economies" is another way of saying "get your citizens to buy our cheap goods so we can have some of your savings!")

Jeezy creezy...

I generally don't mention this, but "Atlas Shrugged" is among my favorite books - there's a certain stigma that goes along with saying you like "Atlas Shrugged". If you've ever read the book, there are certain parallels to the world we are seeing today. Granted, the book is a work of fiction and uses a certain amount (lots?) of hyperbole in the plot, but the logic works and is running quite similar to the world we are in today. Feel free to read it... I would always suggest it :)

I don't know about you, but I'm a little worried about inflation. The run up in the stock market really doesn't seem to have a rational basis except for a certain amount of bounce-back from an over sell-off back in the spring. The bounce back has been a little extreme in my opinion, especially considering that unemployment hasn't peaked yet and retail sales are still sluggish.

I SUSPECT that the market is already pricing in inflation - if we consider the price of gold has gone up 15% since spring along with the 25% increase in the Dow we've seen during the same period, then we've really only gotten a "corrected" increase of 10% in the Dow which is actually much closer to a true correction to an oversold condition.

We have one scary thing coming next month... October. October is a very shaky time for stock markets. The greatest market crashes of all time (1929 and 1987) came in October, and corrections are more likely to happen in October. Consider that of the 120 worst market days since 1907, over HALF have occurred in Sept (24), Oct(24), and Nov(14).

Honestly, it's a tough call for what to do with money right now. In the long run, holding cash is losing proposition due to the huge risk of inflation. Going into gold (the traditional anti-inflation play) right now is risky due to the high price of gold. The market is shaky at best right now.

Perhaps a currency play? The problem is that the 2 economies running a surplus right now (Germany and China) are both problematic. Germany is using the Euro, and the Chinese Yuan is pegged to the dollar in practice even if it's not spoken about.

There are 2 other thoughts that cloud things a bit:
1. China is the largest holder of US Debt. If the US experiences inflation, that will hurt China in the sense that the interest which China gets off our debt will be worth less than when they bought the debt. It is in China's interest to keep the dollar propped up until they can diversify out of the dollar and (probably) into gold. Since China can't just dump tons of money into gold, they will have to step into it gradually thereby putting a floor under the price of gold.
2. I forgot what #2 was :) perhaps I'll remember later!

BTW, if I describe something that doesn't really make sense or use a term that you don't understand, feel free to ask me a question in the comments!

Why deflation is bad...

2009-07-06T12:16:00.004-05:00

I wrote this during an online discussion about inflation vs deflation and thought it was a good explanation of what deflation is and why it is bad. Everyone hears about how inflation is bad, so they assume that deflation is good - not so. Enjoy!

-------

Deflation is bad for anyone paying interest.

Let's say we have 2% deflation and $1000 annual payment on some debt carrying interest. Since your payment never decreases with deflation, you will always pay $1000 on that debt.

You pay $1000 every year no matter what even as your buying power changes with the deflation. At the end of the first year, your payment of $1000 costs you MORE in real buying power than it did when you took on the debt.

Now with the compounding of deflation year over year:

Year 1: $1000 Buying power = $980.00 after deflation
Year 2: $1000 Buying power = $960.40 after deflation
Year 3: $1000 Buying power = $941.19 after deflation
Year 4: $1000 Buying power = $922.36 after deflation
Year 5: $1000 Buying power = $903.92 after deflation

So at the end of 5 years, the same $1000 in buying power only costs you $903. Another way of saying that: You can buy $1000 worth of stuff for $903. Sounds good, right?

But you still have that $1000 payment. What is that really costing you in buying power? Approx $1107.42 in buying power in year 5.

Anyone taking on debt whether it is Individuals (mortgages, credit cards) Companies (corporate bonds, short term paper), Cities/States (municipal bonds), or Governments (treasury bonds) gets hurt by deflation.

Especially long term debts - 30 year mortgages, bonds, etc - the compounding effect of deflation just keeps increasing the costs over time.

That is why economies target a certain amount of inflation - Inflation reduces the "sting" of debt over time whereas deflation increases the "sting" of debt over time.

braen asks...

2009-04-17T02:28:00.002-05:00

"... your commercial real estate disaster is playing out BIG today. So, what's next ? Anything GOOD on the horizon ? "

All news is good news if you know how to play it :)

As for positive areas in the economy... well, earnings haven't been as disappointing as they could have been. is that good? not really but it leaves the market in a sideways trend. I suspect that we are seeing some "window dressing" on the earnings - that means that companies are pushing the losses out beyond this earnings season and will spread them out over the next 6-12 months. That basically delays the pain and spreads it out over a period of time instead of just getting out of the way all at once. It's like tearing the bandaid off slowly instead of just RIPPING it off.

My gut wants to say we're going back down to 7000ish on the Dow before this is over, but my brain says that there are plenty of buyers out there that are giving us a lot of support at 8000. I suspect that there are program buyers out there who are buying anytime the Dow drops to 8000ish. If that is the case, then we'll see a sharp drop to 7500ish in order to squeeze out the buyers.

My biggest concern right now is... inflation. Not now, but in 12-18 months. Basically, the Fed has pulled out the nuclear bomb - Quantitative Easing. That's a fancy way of saying "we're printing money like there is no tomorrow." We've all seen the movie where the bad guys set the timer on a bomb, run away and the good guys only have 2 minutes to disarm it. Well in this situation the Fed has set the bomb, and they have to disarm it. BUT, they can't disarm it early - they have to wait until there's only 2 seconds left on the clock and then disarm it. Too early and the recovery stalls, too late and inflation kicks in in earnest.

I'd suggest that any well diversified portfolio should have (or be building) a position in commodities - gold, copper, etc. Gold is your traditional inflation hedge, but copper is a good second - interestingly oil could be a good place to be as well. Be careful about platinum and other industrial metals, inflation can slow down production and reduce demand on those types of commodities. Be sure to talk with you own Financial Advisor before making an investment.

So there you go... my bright spots - earnings are not as bad as they could be and inflation is in check... for now!

Is it right to accept unemployment checks?

2009-04-13T22:51:00.002-05:00

Here's a little conundrum I've been mulling over lately considering my current "employment status":

Is it right for me to accept a check for not working?

I feel very strongly that my time is mine, and that I should be paid (and paid well) for utilizing that time for the benefit of someone else. If I am unemployed and not providing a benefit to my chosen profession (or any industry), does that mean that I should refuse the state's unemployment check?

Yes - and here is my argument - justification if you prefer :)

I do not pay into the State Unemployment fund - no employee does which is something that most people don't understand. Nothing from your paycheck goes to the state's unemployment insurance commission. All of the money in the state's unemployment is paid by the employer.

BUT - if the employer didn't have that expense, then there would be more money in the budget for me to negotiate my salary and I would consequently get a larger paycheck. Therefore I AM paying the by virtue of the fact that I CAN'T get that money in my paycheck.

Thusly, I am happy to accept my weekly check from the unemployment office.

It's snowing!!!

2009-03-28T12:05:00.002-05:00

Uh... it's almost April... and it's snowing!

The feline update....

2009-03-06T21:27:00.003-06:00

I know some of you are dying to see the Munny experiment and how that turned out. Give me a few days to catch up and you'll see the results. George seems quite happy with them, so we'll call it a success.

I've been very preoccupied with Dizzy all week. It turns out that she was suffering from congestive heart failure this week. After a couple trips to the vet, a few drugs and an ultrasound later we got a definitive diagnosis of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy. Basically, her heart muscle has developed to the point that it was interfering with it's own ability to pump blood. This lead to a build up of fluid in her lungs.

I'm happy to report that she is doing better. She's not 100%, but she's getting better. If she recovers well over the next week, she could live for years more, but she has to be willing to recover.

She will need medication daily for the rest of her life, but it's quite minimal. I'll make sure to post updates as we go along.

Here's a pic of Dizzy's stupid haircut - they had to shave her to do the ultrasound :)

I'm going to run off and join the circus...

2009-02-26T16:45:00.001-06:00

Derek took the free ColorQuiz.com personality test!

"His need to feel more causative and to have a wide..."

Click here to read the rest of the results.

Wow... how low can it go? redux

2009-02-23T19:58:00.008-06:00

Remember when I mentioned more trouble coming with insurance companies and picked 7200 as the bottom on the Dow? http://sittingonthe405.blogspot.com/2009/01/q-and.html

Firstly, - AIG wants more money. http://www.cnbc.com/id/29353282 A major reason AIG cites is large markdowns on commercial real estate - which is something else that I warned about.

Secondly...

Well, we hit 7114 on the Dow today. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090223/wall_street.html

And we hit it hard... A little harder than I like. If the Dow can stay above 7000 for the next few days we should be OK. There's a phrase used in trading: "Dead Cat Bounce". It's kind of gruesome, but the idea is that even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from a high enough point.

Well, we dropped pretty hard in the last few weeks (harder than I expected) and we're likely to see a bounce for a short period. The question is what happens after the bounce.

If we break 7000, look out below. If we stay above 7000 we should be OK for a while. The problem is that we've barely started earnings season. Any real shocks in earnings could send us a lot lower, but we could be seeing everyone bracing themselves for the worst on the earnings front.

We are at a crossroads and we need some good signposts from the government and we're not getting them. Geithner really shot himself in the foot with his non-announcement of the government stimulus and salvage plans.

We need leadership and we need confidence and we are getting neither right now.

Here come the Obama haters...

2009-02-23T11:05:00.003-06:00

Check out this article: http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090223/AUTO01/902230327

Detroit Times reports on the cars owned by Obama's auto team - not the cars provided by the administration or the various departments headed by these people but their PERSONAL cars. And they seem to have a problem with the fact that most are imports.

WTF? Why is this news?

So let's look at what these people own. Very few of the cars are new - most are 5, 10 or even 20 years old. The vast majority of them are imports. Several people are listed as not owning a car or using public transportation. What does this tell us?

1. These people are not buying brand new cars - sounds reasonable to me, perhaps even prudent? Cars have a lifespan of at least 10 years and even longer with certain brands.

2. Imports - Honda, Toyota VW, Volvo all last forever. American cars don't. If these people are thinking ahead, which I hope they do, they will be looking for the best value for their money.

3. Public transportation - Once again, a prudent move. Why buy a car when you can use good, reliable public transport? Tulsa's public transportation suuuucks. But bigger cities have great public transportation networks. The north eastern US is cris-crossed with railroads, buses actually run on time, and their are tons of them. Sounds like a good idea to me.

4. THESE ARE THEIR PERSONAL CARS! BOUGHT WITH THEIR OWN DOLLARS! Who the hell cares what they do with their money? And if you do care, take the time to realize why they spent their money that way.

Sheesh...

Ok, so on the work front. Yep, I'm a casualty of the recession. I will be laid off as of 3/1. Due to a restructuring, my position is being eliminated. I had hoped to transition to another department and just switch roles, but that isn't happening.

Before you worry about me, we've been responsible people and are prepared for this event. Our expenses are minimal, and we can pay our bills just from my unemployment and george's paycheck.

I've been looking for other jobs, but nothing is looking wonderful at this point.

I wish there was more to tell, but it's mostly just a matter of watching and jumping when the time is right. I'll post more as we go along :)

Digital TV conversion idiocy

2009-02-13T22:06:00.002-06:00

CNN article about the delay in conversion dates - http://scitech.blogs.cnn.com/2009/02/12/more-mud-in-the-digital-switchover-waters/#comment-14427

Does anybody else realize that the $40 coupons were a bad idea?

Think about it this way: If you were a manufacturer, would you sell the boxes for less than $40 if you KNEW that the coupon guaranteed you would receive no less than $40 for every box sold?

How cheap could the converter boxes be if there was no coupon? $20? $10?

Ever looked to see how much the converter boxes run? There are no boxes under $40 on Amazon. Why would there be? The seller is guaranteed to get $40 from the coupon, so there's no reason to price it under $40.

So now the conversion has been delayed to June since not everyone got there coupon in time for the Feb 17 conversion. If the boxes were $10 or $20, how many of those people would be ready now?

If the government HAS to do something, why not work with the cable companies and subsidize the cost of dropping a basic cable box in each of those homes? The cable companies already have almost every house in the country wired for cable already.

Heck, every TV made in the last 20 years has a connector for the cable company anyway. All they have to do is add a wall jack (if there's not one already and odds are really good there already is a jack) and connect the cable.

But there's a gotcha - again done by the government - that doesn't allow the cable companies to convert the signal back to analog so it's a no-go for my idea. But let them down-convert back to analog, and it's a workable solution.

Leave it to the government to screw stuff up...

latest obsession...

2009-02-08T22:48:00.003-06:00

My latest obsession and next project is... Munny Speakers! Braen's post mentioned munnies and i did a little searching to see what people were doing with them.

Here's what I'll be making in the next couple weeks!

Link - http://www.instructables.com/id/Munny-Speakers/

and just for fun... this is what happens when geeks get ahold of office supplies...

EepyBird's Sticky Note experiment from Eepybird on Vimeo.

I mean really....

2009-02-06T23:52:00.005-06:00

Unless you have been living under a rock, you've surely heard about the "miracle mom" of the octuplets.

You know she gave birth to 8 babies last week, right?

But, did you know:

1. She is a single mom.
2. She has been on disability since 2002.
3. She had in vitro fertilization to become pregnant with the octuplets.
4. She has 6 children from a PREVIOUS ROUNDS of in vitro fertilization.
5. She plans on going back to school in the fall.

What the FRAK?

14 children? FOURTEEN? by in vitro? while disabled and unemployed and single? don't get me wrong, being a single mom isn't evil - hell, I'm impressed by most single moms. But FOURTEEN kids by in vitro while single with no income but your disability?

I mean, really... in vitro fertilization takes planning, not to mention money. The average cost of a round of in vitro fertilization is $4,000-$10,00 and it often takes several rounds for a successful implantation. So who the hell paid for it?

...and she plans to go back to school in the fall? Um, did she forget that she has FOURTEEN CHILDREN to take care of? FOURTEEN CHILDREN. That's half a freaking classroom at most schools - and a FULL classroom at some.

Is she going to take the kids some place for daycare while she goes back to school? That's going to take 14 car seats. Is there ANY freaking car that will carry 14 car seats? 2 full-size vans would do it, but how is she going to drive 2 vans by herself?

What could drive someone to think that they NEED 14 kids? Let's assume that there were 6 leftover embryos from the original IVFs and she couldn't bear to not have them carried to full term. Why not donate them to 3 other couples and share the joy of children with other people?

It's physically impossible to carry 8 babies to full term and to be born healthy and robust. ALL 8 children are at risk for physical as well as mental developmental disabilities. And the money... one estimate puts the deliveries and neonatal care at 1.5-3 MILLION dollars.

I'm at a loss.... FOURTEEN freaking kids... that's a football team, or 2 basketball teams, or a baseball team plus a batting crew, or a Lacrosse team plus alternates, or 2 handball teams, or 2 hockey teams plus alternates...

Links -
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090206/ap_on_re_us/octuplets
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29038814/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28948599/

TED is happening this week!

2009-02-05T19:25:00.004-06:00

One of my favorite events is happening this week - Called TED for it's major topics: Technology Entertainment and Design

LINK - http://www.ted.com/index.php/

This is another one of those things that makes me giddy.

These events attract some of the smartest - and some of the oddest - and some of the most creative - people in the world. Whether it's a geek from MIT who has developed a multi-touch interface for schools, or a dance troupe, or an author, everyone at TED is there to step into the future.

One of the greatest things is the synergy that comes out the collected minds at the TED events. As the event happens, connections are made and interests are combined.

If possible, pick up "TED: The Future We Will Create" on DVD.

Here's the Trailer -

And a couple of my favorite segments:

Not from TED - but should be!

yes... i can laugh at myself...

2009-01-27T12:56:00.002-06:00

As some of you might know, I play World of Warcraft. I admit it and I can laugh at myself for it as well.

"The Guild" is an online video series that I've been watching and loving. Even though the newest episode is from season 2 of the series, it's hilarious... at least to me... and it really doesn't depend on the backstory. Take a gander and think of me being one of these socially inept and awkward folks.

Season 2 - Episode 9: Grouping Up

The oddest things make me giddy

2009-01-26T14:40:00.001-06:00

From this article on cnn.com

"The AAA figures, compiled by Oil Price Information Services, are state-wide averages based on credit card swipes at up to 100,000 service stations across the nation. "

OK... I'm a geek, but this kind of thing makes me giddy. This is the kind of cleverness that inspires me. Instead of relying on reported gas prices, they use the actual prices PAID by reading the reports from credit card transactions.

Another example is 800-GOOG-411. Back in 2007, Google had billboards around Califoria promoting it as a free 411 service. It was completely voice activated and was pretty good about giving you the info you needed. What we didn't realize was that Google was using it as a way of "listening" to the way that people speak and pronounce words. Wikipedia link

me and planes aren't getting along right now

2009-01-19T17:05:00.004-06:00

Yesterday I was flying back home with george and of course interesting things happen.

NWA is pretty good about arriving and departing on time. Their mindset seems to be "sit down, shut, and hang on!" Of course, as the day progresses, they have problems like most of the airlines. We were catching a late afternoon flight from RDU to TUL through MEM. Ah hell... i just realized that I spend too much damn time in airports - i think in terms of airport codes instead of cities... bah

Anywho... We were catching a late afternoon flight from Raliegh Durham to Tulsa through Memphis. After arriving in Memphis, it turns out our flight to Tulsa was oversold and they wanted volunteers to get bumped. We checked in with them and they offered us each $300 flight credit, food, and a hotel room if we would spend the night in Memphis.

Interesting offer, huh? BUT who says we have to stay in Memphis? Let's grab a rental and drive home. It's a 6 hour drive, and we'll get home before george has to be at work. So, we grab our vouchers, and make haste towards the food places. Interestingly everything in MEM airport shuts down around 8pm. So we managed to spend $31 in food vouchers at ARBY's grabbing dinner plus a bunch of bottled waters, juices and sundries for the ride home.

Called Avis and booked a car. I guess my many car rentals has paid off since the rental was $116 through the AVIS platinum phone line, and $160 as a walk up at the counter. After loading up the car with our suitcases, plugged in Sally the GPS, and pointed the car towards Tulsa.

6 hours later, we were home and that was that.

Ta-dah!!!

Just what is "retirement"?

2009-01-13T00:29:00.002-06:00

Think about that question. What does retirement mean for YOU?

I read this on Braen's blog: "I never imagined reaching a point where I'd actually be talking about retirement in a realistic way, or pondering things like health directives and life insurance. But this is that year."

I'm not even 36 (that's a few days away) but I had a realization at a birthday party for a friend that just happened to be on new year's day. If I squint my eyes just right, and think about it in a really weird way, I could theoretically be close to retirement.

One of the milestones for me on my way to retirement has been to have a home that is paid off. Well, 3 years or so from now, my home will be paid off. Now that doesn't mean I can just quit working and never think about money again, but it does mean I'm a step closer - and a big one.

To me that means I have a place to live no matter what happens. No one can take that away from me. It is a form of complete independence.

So... what does retirement mean to you?

Q and A

2009-01-12T22:21:00.005-06:00

Braen asks: OK, so then ... what in the world is next ? How low can it ( will it ) go ?

Answer:
Part 1- What is next - Well, I expect we're going to see insurance companies start to get in financial trouble. I don't think it's going to be on the scale of AIG - I think that's more or less the exception. But we are going to see insurance companies struggle to keep their promises on existing VA's (Variable Annuities) and we're going to see new VA contracts offering much less in the way of guarantees and higher expenses. I'm not sure how many of my dear readers are concerned about VA's but that is the next area that is going to get attention.

If you have an existing VA should you be concerned? My personal opinion is: No. There are state gaurantee funds that each insurance carrier has to pay into based on their insurance/annuity sales in order to sell their products in a state. If your insurance company goes insolvent, the state fund guarantees that you will generally get the most recent cash value of your contract - that doesn't include any step-ups, promises or anything else... just the most recent cash value of the contract.

If you have a contract that is nearing the end of the surrender period, or is out of the surrender period, talk to your financial advisor to see if you need to reposition that money.

Prt 2 - It depends on what "IT" is... :)

How low can the market go? Theoretically, it can go to zero. Realistically, I don't think it will go that far. There are a couple of theories that you can go by. One is that P/E ratios must drop below interest rates. A P/E ratio is the stock price divided by the company's earnings per share. If a stock is priced at $50 and the earnings per share are $2, then the P/E ratio is 25.

Historically speaking, the P/E ratios go higher in boom periods and lower in bust periods. According to one theorist, we won't come out of this bust until the interest rates exceed the P/E number of the S&P 500. What does that mean?

Well, the current P/E is 11.81 and we'd need to see it come down to around 6-8 for this theory to predict the bottom assuming that interest rates jump to 6-8%. How realistic is it that we will see interest rates hit 8%? Pretty good if you consider that the government is pumping billions/trillions of dollars into the economy. Pumping that much money into an economy creates inflation which in turn makes interest rates go up. Simpy put... prices could drop another 20% or around 700 on the S&P500. Or you could look at the other side of the equation and say that earnings have to rise to bring the P/E back down - but how likely are we to see earnings rise in this economy?

So that's one theory... another theory that we could consider again refers to P/E ratios but just looks at the trend lines or averages over time. This theory would indicate that we are already in the bottom as the trendline says we should be seeing a P/E of around 15.

Personally, I think we've seen the bottom but we'll have to test it. My personal opinion is that we will see another 10% drop through the next 3 quarters. I'm picking 7200-7500 as my bottom for the Dow Jones. Christmas retail sucked. Period. Earnings numbers for 2008 are going to suck. When the earnings numbers for 2008 come out at the end of the 1st quarter we're going to see another drop in the markets. If the companies are smart, they'll start preparing the analysts for crappy numbers so that they can beat the analyst expectations. Under promise, over deliver.

How did I pick 7200-7500? Well, the Dow bottom of about 7450 will have to be tested to see if it holds. My expectation, considering the retail numbers and all the other crappy news, is that the Dow will probably drop to those numbers again, but not drop too far below that level.

Of course that's just a guess... Don't consider this trading advice or anything like that. Talk to your own financial advisor before making any trades or investments to make sure they fit your particular situation.

Media finally catching up...

2009-01-05T12:52:00.003-06:00

Remember way back when i mentioned that commercial real estate was the next bubble?

It's finally starting to make the news... http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/04/business/real.php

It doesn't matter how much money you make...

2009-01-02T11:54:00.002-06:00

Chew on this thought...

It doesn't matter how much money you make, it only matters how much you spend.

Rather simplistic, huh? I think it's a truism that most people don't understand or at least don't practice. Once you step outside of this idea, you are taking risks. How much risk are you willing to take?

Edit: the following is a tangent, but it is an example of what I mean by "it only matters what you spend".

Looking at housing prices, the "average" price to build a house is about $118 per square foot. Depending on where you live, that cost can go to $200 easily. Personally, I bought my house for $73/sqft. I know how much space I need to live in and could have afforded much more, but I wanted to keep my expenses in check.

How much of a house can you afford? Well, consider that the "rule of thumb" is about 3 times your annual income and the average household income is around $50,000. The average house for these folks should be about $150,000.

Given the $118/sqft price, that means the average family should be looking at a 1200 sqft house for $150,000. But what is the average sqft a house in the US? according to these folks the average is around 2330 sqft. At $118/sqft that puts the average home price at $275,000 - or 5.5 times the average household income.

Is there any question why people are in foreclosure?

Housing prices are dropping and are starting to come more inline with what people should be spending. They aren't there yet but could be by the time the housing market bottoms out in the next 12-24 months.

But there is a fly in the ointment - the government is working to stabilize housing prices even at these (still) inflated prices. If we stabilize prices at their current levels (which are above the true values) it will take years for the true value to rise to match the stabilized prices. Based on my rough calculations, it will take 5-10 years for the true values to match these stabilized values.

in the words of Gordon Gekko - Greed is Good!

2008-12-27T12:21:00.010-06:00

Here's a bright spot... Adjusted for inflation, current gas prices are EXACTLY the same as they were 20 years ago when I started driving. Allowing 2.5% annual inflation, that $0.79 gas of 1988 consumed the same amount of buying power as the current price of $1.39. (all gas prices are local to me, and what I remember. anyone living in California and paying higher gas prices can be jealous.)

For those looking for the bottom, it's not here yet - and probably won't be here until 3Q2009. But, things are getting really cheap and will continue to get cheaper.

Ultimately THAT is what's going to be the thing that gets us out of this in the end... GREED.

As people come to realize how cheap things are, they will start slowly venturing back into the marketplace. How many of us are tempted to refinance our mortgage right now? How many are even considering buying an investment property? How many are tempted to buy a car as price cuts, incentives and rebates cut 20-30% off car prices? How many see GM and Ford stock trading at $3-4 and think "how much lower can it go?" House prices are dropping like crazy... but when do you buy?

At some point, greed comes into the picture.... and... then... you... buy.

It's at that point that the economy starts to recover. The trick in this situation, is that the government needs to pump JUST ENOUGH money into your pockets for you to feel confident and to let you feel that you can take a risk and satisfy that instinct of greed.

Too much money and we end up with high inflation, too little money and we end up with deflation - take a look at Japan's "lost decade".

Back to my gas prices example. If we allow 2.5% for inflation and 2.5% for profit, the real price of gas right now should be around $2.09. That means gas is at a 34% discount to it's "true/adjusted" cost.

My suggestion? Take a step back and look at how cheap things are getting.

Feeling patriotic? buy something!

2008-12-22T15:23:00.007-06:00

ok... so where was I? ah yes, I had gotten 2 hours of sleep, my flights had been canceled, a snowstorm was pounding it's way towards me, I had just rescheduled my entire itinerary, my brain was floating in a sugary soup of LaQuinta waffle with cherry topping, and the sun hadn't even risen yet - but I was on my way to Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.

Most of the trip was a blur. Upstate New York, skirt west of NYC, south to Newark, NJ, pay somewhere around a billion dollars in tolls. I think I passed through some part of Delaware. I flirted with Philadelphia - that's Pennsylvania I think, but it could have been the southern suburbs in Delaware... or was that New Jersey?

I did catch some snow between Newark, and the Delaware border. The temps were hovering right at freezing and the snow was falling like crazy, but after 15-30 minutes it turned to rain. AND CONTINUED TO RAIN FOR THE NEXT 350 MILES...

I was a little worried about rush hour... I was going to be hitting Newark around 8am. Not too bad, no major slowdowns. I guess the tolls I had to pay every 2 minutes kept the traffic to a minimum.

At some point I stopped for breakfast at McDonald's with a little convenience store next door. I grabbed a McSomethingorother and stopped by the store for a little caffeine in the form of Mt Dew.

Some of you might remember Dr Chan's energy shots. Nasty little brown vials of nasty liquid that contain little more than sugar water and vitamins, but would keep you bouncing off the walls for hours at a time. Nowadays we have "5-hour Energy Shots". I have 10 hours of driving left, so I'll take 2. I pop the top of the first bottle and wash it down with Mt Dew. AHhhhhh..... Snappy packaging does little to smooth the nasty liquid that was clearly reminiscent of Dr. Chan's.

10 minutes later I'm WIDE awake and pounding along the interstate like a trucker; feeling no fear, and even if I did manage to kill myself, I would have had enough energy to pick up the various parts of my body and drag them to the next rest stop.

The snow began to slow slightly and change to rain so things got slightly better. At least until I got to the Baltimore/DC area. From there the traffic got thicker and it eventually took me a full hour to get past DC. On my way out, I noticed that I hadn't seen a single Washington landmark - no pentagon, no whitehouse, no washington monument.... nothing. The only thing I saw was an exit from the highway going to the NSA marked "employees only". Ah the irony... the country's most secret organization was the only obvious landmark and it was plainly marked with an "employee only" sign.

Most of the rest of the trip to Raleigh-Durham was pretty uneventful. I did get a rather odd look when I turned in my car. The guy checking in the car was a little surprised to see my pickup time in Albany was 6am and my return time in RDU was the same day at 7pm. I was a little punch drunk at that point so I'm not sure...

...to be continued...

"Planes, trains and automobiles" - the storm

2008-12-22T13:48:00.012-06:00

So my latest trip started off great, meetings went fine and I got to see a few new places like Manhattan and Staten Island.

Did you know that La Quinta has a hotel in Manhattan? and it's cheap too! Under $100/night with AAA discounts. Here's a pic of my room:

And here's a pic of the view from my room:

Ah... landmarks... see the really tall building just to the right of the fire escapes? That's the Empire State Building as seen from my room!

All went well until it was time to come home. On Friday I had a 6am flight from Albany to Tulsa, with 2 stops (Cleveland and Houston). I was to be home by 1pm.

I pass out at approximately 2 am, and get up at 4am to get to the airport by 5am - it's not a big airport, so that's plenty of time. As I check out of the hotel, the manager mentions the canceled flight of the folks who just checked out... canceled flight? I knew there was a snowstorm headed to Albany that afternoon, but I thought I was going to miss it... but no... Cleveland was shut down. Uh oh....

Before leaving the hotel, I called Continental... flights all canceled. How about Newark? Shut down. NYC airports? shutdown. Detroit? shutdown.... Cleveland? shutdown. Any connection I could make out of Albany was shut down. Sigh... how about tomorrow? no flights. WHA? no seats available on Saturday. Ok... Sunday? "We can get you through Detroit on a NWA flight on Sunday night." Ah crap....

Sunday, eh? Fine - Book it. So now I have a flight home on Sunday. Back to the front desk of the hotel.

Me: You know that room I just checked out of... can I have that for the next 2 days?
Her:But you just checked out.
Me: Yes... but now I need it for 2 more days since my flight was canceled.
Her: so you will be checking out on Sunday?
Me: Yes.
Her: Ok. You know... there is another snowstorm that will be here on Sunday...
Me: Huh?Wha?
Her: Sunday morning, more snow.
Me: Oh crap.... That means 2 more days after that... That makes it Christmas eve before I can leave... And I KNOW there are no seats available around Christmas.
Her: Here's your room keys... Thank you for choosing LaQuinta. Enjoy your stay!

Oh crap... I'm going to be stuck here until after Christmas. Oh crap... I grab a LaQuinta waffle with cherry topping and dumbly stare at the TV in the lobby with disbelief. 6-12 inches of snow this afternoon. ugh...

Did I mention that this was at 5am? Did I mention that I had gotten 2 hours of sleep?

I logged onto the hotel computer and looked at the weather maps. Hmmm.... big snow headed this way. But no further south than New Jersey or Delaware. The wheels start turning in my sleep starved mind now on a sugar high from the LaQuinta waffle with cherry topping.

Wait. Newark, NJ is only 2 hours south of here, and Delaware is only an hour past that. If I can get to Delaware before 9am I can beat the snow. But where would I go after that? Who do I know... who do I know... I got it! Tim and Mary live in North Carolina! Mary is already in Tulsa, but Tim hasn't left yet, and he's DRIVING to Tulsa. Can I get to Raleigh-Durham today?

Google Maps.... Albany, NY to Durham, NC...

View Larger Map

650 miles... 11 hours driving time... It's POSSIBLE. Hmmm... But wait, can I beat the snow? 3 hours to Delaware, it's 5:30am now.... It's POSSIBLE, but I only have a 30 minute window. Ah CRAP!

Call Avis.

Me: I need to change my reservation to return the car in RDU tomorrow.
CSR: ok, that will make your total bill $989 plus fees and taxes.
Me: huwha?
CSR: the rate changed from $45/day to $149/day for all days not just the extra day.
Me: uh... no thanks... buhbye.

Scan forehead... scan forehead... what can I do? what can I do? Wait a sec. I'll return the car I have and rent another one for a single day. Jump on Avis.com - make the reservation. DONE!

Ok... I have a plan, and I have transportation. But what if Tim is already on the road. It's 530am, Tim should be up, right? Call him. No answer. crap. What makes him think he can sleep at a time like this?!

Screw it. Take the chance. Even if he's already on the road, at least I won't be stuck in Albany, NY for a week.

Go to the airport. Crap! need to return the car full of gas... did I mention that it was 530am, I'd gotten 2 hours of sleep, and it was damn freaking cold in Albany?

Get to the Airport. Turn in car.

CSR: Good morning. Cold enough for ya?
Me: Hi. I need to return a car.
CSR: Ok... {click... click... type... type} here's your receipt. Thank you for choosing avis!
Me: thanks! I need to pick up a car.
CSR: wha? you just turned in a car.
Me: yep. and now I need to pick up a car.
CSR: are you sure?
Me: yes.
CSR: OK... {click... click... type... type} we have your reservation here...{lots more clicking and typing} here's your rental agreement. Thank you for choosing avis!

Back to the hotel....

Me: I need to check out.... again.
CSR: huwha?
Me: I'm driving to North Carolina to avoid getting stuck here during the storm.
CSR: driving? to North Carolina? do you know how far that is?
Me: yes. here are the room keys...
CSR: ok..... you know a snowstorm is heading this way, right?
Me: YES! AND I NOW HAVE 15 MINUTES TO LEAVE BEFORE I MISS MY WINDOW TO BEAT THE FREEZE LINE TO DELAWARE!
CSR: ok.... thanks for choosing LaQuinta... {what a weirdo...}

...to be continued....

I am living my own version of "Planes, Trains and Automobiles..."

2008-12-21T22:27:00.002-06:00

I will post a follow up with details, but suffice it to say that I now know (from experience) that one can drive from Albany, NY to Tulsa, OK in approximately 30 hours driving time.

Auto Industry Bailout

2008-12-12T13:09:00.002-06:00

Following up on Braen's post card which I posted yesterday...

My first thought is "don't bail them out". I'm a strong believer in a capitalist market system, and any governmental intrusion is, at best, misguided. The consumer tells the manufacturer what they want and the manufacturer gives it to them, or it goes out of business. Of course, that's an incredibly simplistic statement that does not cover all situations.

But... this interview has one line that really made me pause: "The best argument for the bailout is that it is the most cost-effective jobs program that the government can run in the short term." Going back to my previous comments regarding a new WPA, this is a very good point. Let's just ignore the numbers for now to keep it simple.

Instead of the government getting a dollar for dollar stimulus into the jobs market, they are actually getting more than a dollar because of the auto industry's existing infrastructure. Instead of having to create infrastructure for a jobs program, they use the existing manufacturers existing job base and support them that way.

Given that point of view, I'd reluctantly support the bailout. Not the best solution, but at least it's something besides a gift from uncle sam...

GM

2008-12-10T16:00:00.001-06:00

This says it all pretty nicely... :)

Politics, the Economy and my thoughts (pt 3)

2008-11-25T21:56:00.002-06:00

So.. a couple more things that I have been thinking about. These are doozies that are going to are going to have subtle (and not so subtle) but far reaching effects.

1 - Commercial Real Estate - This is an area that has not even been mentioned by the media. Commercial real estate is not like residential real estate. While it is somewhat easier to value due to the nature of the beast, it is much slower to devolve. In it's simplest terms, as a commercial real estate investor you would look at a property based on what you can get in rent. For example, if you can lease a property out to Target for $100,000 per month, then it's really pretty easy to value it. you know that over the course of a year, you are going to get $1.2 million in rent, $6 million in 5 years, and $12 million in 10 years, etc. The lower your purchase price, the faster you can pay off the "mortgage" that much faster.

But... what happens when you can't rent it out for as much as you had thought? what happens when retail sales slump, and your renter can't pay the rent anymore? Well, the value of your property just dropped since the value is based on the prevailing rents. If you now owe more than it's worth, unless you can carry the difference until the market recovers, you are going to be in the same position as a home owner who can't afford their mortgage.

As the economy slows down, retail sales drop off, and businesses close their doors, commercial real estate is going to be the next area that is going to get hit hard. Rents will come down dragging their corresponding property values along with them. Banks might be slightly happier to repossess a commercial property than a suburban McMansion, but not by much. Banks need cash to lend out, not property to hold on to for the next 5-10 years.

Banks are mostly the ones financing commercial real estate, but a lot of them are financed by REITs and Limited Partnerships (LP's) . We're going to see REIT's implode, and LP's are going to be struggling to make distribution payments. Once again, these are subtle events but are going to ripple through the economy for years to come.

Topics to come...

2- Credit card debt and Bankruptcies
3 - Unemployment

Politics, the Economy and my thoughts (pt 2)

2008-11-18T22:46:00.008-06:00

note: this began as my thoughts about Braen's comment to my previous post, so don't take this as a direct attack, Braen :)

We have to make a distinction between the "market" aka "wall street" and the "economy". This might surprise you, but I couldn't care less about the stock market. It's an interesting barometer of the economy and could be considered a reflection of the economy, but it shouldn't more important than the economy.

Remember that: the stock market is a part of the economy and merely a reflection of or a gauge of how parts of the economy are doing.

In a sense I agree with you that the market is "smoke and mirrors" and in that sense is why I suggest forgetting about the stock market and letting companies go bankrupt. When it comes to short term investing in the market of individual stocks, the perception of a stock is more important than the fundamentals. For long term investing, the fundamentals of a stock become more important (P/E ratios, dividend yields, and many other factors)

My thoughts about the economy are at the much greater level than the stock market. Like I said before, at this point I couldn't care less about the Dow, S&P 500, or the Nasqaq. I'm more interested at a fundamental level of the economy. Money and the movement of that money.

In my opinion, we have been in a recession or depression for a lot longer than the governement acknowledges. High oil prices have hidden the fact that retail sales are down, and that corporate profits are negligible or negative (losses). Think of it this way: the net effect of passing high oil costs on to the consumer offset the real losses that manufacturers were seeing. Another way of looking at it from a math perspective (with my totally made-up numbers) is this: if losses were 3% but the cost of energy was increased by 7% then the net effect at the consumer level is +4% ( -3% plus 7% = +4%) which looks like inflation even though at the manufacturer level it is recessionary.

In a growing economy inflation will always exist. It's just an economic fact of life and they will always go hand in hand. Inflation is "the decrease in buying power over time". For example, in 1950's cost of going to a moview was about 5 cents - now it's $5-10. Are you getting anymore value for your 2 hours of entertainment? No, but the cost has increased.

Inflation can exist without growth or outpace growth, and those examples show up throughout history. The hyperinflation of 1920's Germany, 1980's Argentina, and even the US during the Civil War.

Well, if inflation can be so bad, why don't we work toward "deflation"? Simply put this situation is even worse. Deflation is the opposite of inflation or "the increase of purchasing power in money over time". Sounds great, but let me ask you this: if you knew that you could buy the same item for less money by waiting some period of time, would you buy it? Or, if you could buy a house today, but you knew that you could only sell it for a lower price in the future, would you buy it? The end result is that people start hoarding money and the economy crashes.

Keep in mind that decreases in prices due to "special sales" and increases in efficiency in production are not deflationary. Just because you can get a 2for1 special on Fruity Pebbles this week does not mean that deflation is in effect. It may just be a "loss leader" or some other advertising plan.

Once again, I have to believe that we are in a recessionary (and possibly deflationary) economy. Feeding into that is the fear of job loss, and the fact that people, banks, and corporations are holding on to any cash they might have starving the economy of liquid cash.

The solutions are going to have to be big and come from the federal level, with the states following suit with help from the feds. Large scale infrastructure projects would be the best way, but there might be other smaller scale solutions as well.

Politics, the Economy and my thoughts

2008-11-17T11:57:00.001-06:00

I generally steer clear of politics, the economy, and similar topics, but I have a few thoughts:

1. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Unemployment will go higher. Bankruptcies will happen. Christmas retail is going to suck. All in, we're looking at about 12-18 month before we see a real swing to the positive. There will be bright spots, but for the economy as a whole, it's going to be a slow dig out of this grave.

2. The engine of the economy is retail sales and the movement of money at the consumer level. With the fear of layoffs, job loss, and corporate bankruptcies, no one spending money. Who would want to spend their disposable income at a time when they're not sure they will have a job in 6 months?

3. Solution #1: Let the companies fail and file for bankruptcy. Some will just dissolve and never rise again but some have large illiquid assets that will form a base for coming out of the bankruptcy leaner and with the strength to be successful. Consider the factories, etc of the large manufacturers. Just because a manufacturer files for bankruptcy doesn't mean those assets disappear. It just means that the stockholders lose their investment but the company can restructure and rise out of bankruptcy ala the airlines in the last 5 years.

4. Solution #2a: A 21st Century WPA - yep... straight out of the playbook of the Great Depression. the Works Progress Administration (WPA) was created by FDR to employ the unemployed in projects that supported and built the country's infrastructure. You can still see WPA stamps in sidewalks across the country. We need a similar project today, that will help unemployment and still get value for the dollars paid to those workers. It's a way to put money back into the pockets of the unemployed, spur commerce through large contracting projects, and get folks thinking about spending the money they have (if they have confidence that they will not be unemployed anytime soon.)

5. Solution #2b: Convert/supplement existing 20th century infrastructure to 21st century technology. For example, create a WPA project to build renewable energy sources. Create projects for wind power generation that will alleviate oil energy demands. This is similar to the Pickens Plan, but would be publicly funded. Also, build infrastructure for electric cars, mass transit systems, etc. This would stop the fluctuations in the oil markets from creating stress on the economy and slowing the growth of the economy. (I really don't like the idea of creating a government program to compete with the private investment like the Pickens Plan, but I'd rather have some sort of project than the possibility of no project if the Pickens Plan never gets off the ground.)

6. Solution #3: Transparent and credible markets with intrinsic responsibility. The various credit markets do not have regulations that require transactions to be completely transparent. Consider the various packaged mortgages that were traded between companies in the last few years. It could be considered the same as buying a "grab bag" at the Sanrio store - you knew you were getting something in the bag, you just weren't sure you would like it. Of course, the packages traded had more transparency than the grab bag, but the analogy holds... obviously the traders didn't REALLY value them correctly. Adding transparency also creates responsibility on the part of the buyer and seller to actually trade at fair market value. Who would continue to invest with a partner that sold you a "pig in a poke"?

7. Failed Solution: "Tax Rebates" - ala the 2008 Stimulus package where everyone got a check from the government. Sure, it put money into the economy but at the cost of inflation and did nothing to alleviate the unemployment fears. But a Republican administration can't "tax and spend" like Democrats are often said to do. From a political perspective, Republicans would rather give a tax rebate to the people than to spend tax dollars on government projects.

Please keep in mind that I have tried to remain impartial regarding Republican vs Democrat although it is difficult when so much of the economy is politicized.

Just a few thoughts about where we are and where we are going. The question remains how the government will address these issues.

blogging on the road

2008-11-12T20:27:00.000-06:00

I had to get a new phone last week and i'm learning how to use it. it seems to have the ability to post to my blog so we'l see how it works.

latest news is that i'm in michigan this week. of corse food is always an interesting experience when on the road. if I can figure out how to do it, there should be a pic of the oddness of my dinner last night.

I usually try to find chinese food while on the just because the menu tends to be the same no matter where you go. I ordered some beef fried rice and took it back to the hotel. not only did I get a bucket of fried rice that was bursting at the seams, but a home baked dinner roll to boot! a dinner roll with fried rice? i've heard of egg rolls with rice but not dinner rolls :)

the night before was odd as well. I pulled up to the holiday inn express and parked . interesting.... there's not another car ANYWHERE. have I walked into "the shining"? walk inside... no one. nothing freaky happened, but it sure feels odd to have the whole hotel to yourself.

i'm off to bed, so let's see if this works or not....

testing

2008-11-12T20:16:00.000-06:00

Another test

TIVO install complete!

2008-10-01T18:52:00.001-05:00

As you know, I bought a Tivo which uses CableCards. Cox is so bassackwards that they couldn't do the install right the first time. They came back out today and finished what they started although I had to help and doublecheck their work like the geek i am.

Now everything works like it should and I couldn't be happier :)

duplicate recordings? not anymore!
interface-that-moves-like-molasses-in-January? not anymore!
clunky-chunky guide? not anymore!

I figured out how to use the Tivo to watch YouTube videos - pretty awesome even if completely useless :)

our Tivo hasn't decided that it knows us well enough to record random stuff for us, but it'll be fun to see what it thinks we should like.

Oh... did I mention I can watch my recorded shows on my computer as well? Wheehaw!

Ah... the glory that is T-I-V-O

2008-09-30T21:09:00.000-05:00

TIVO! TIVO! TIVO!

Tivo is selling their HD boxes for $179 on their website. It's a refurb, but it's waranteed, guaranteed and it's a TIVO!

I couldn't handle the crappy Cox DVR anymore so, in a fit of weakness, I bought a TIVO! TIVO! TIVO!

This particular TIVO uses CableCards so you don't need a set top box of any sort. I lose the ondemand service from Cox, but you can rent movies through amazon - or you can buy them too. Music? well, I get all the crappy cox music channels, but you can also get Rhapsody to tie into your Tivo. Want to listen to the Smiths? free (only 1 album though). Goldfrapp? free (all the albums). Alanis Morrissette? Free... free... free... with a Rhapsody subsription of course.

Youtube? on the Tivo. I'm still learning about all the stuff you can do, so I might just slip into a Tivo-rific rant every once in a while...

I love TIVO!!!

ah... the amenities...

2008-09-22T20:51:00.000-05:00

Of course you never really see everything about a hotel room on the first night. Here are a couple more amenities of my luxury suite in Long Island

The complementary bottle opener attached to the door frame IN the bathroom:

and the towel rack INSIDE the shower...

Can it get any better? I can't wait for the next bonus I find.

on the road again...

2008-09-20T22:02:00.000-05:00

Started off in Philadelphia... did you know that Philly cheesesteaks come from Philadelphia? :)

I was told to go to Pat's King of Steaks and get "one wit provolone". So I did... and it was good. not the best though. I've had better at Subway.

From Philly I had to get to NYC - Long Island area.

So... want to know what $150 a night will get you on Long Island?

Here's my "entertainment center"...

And here's my bathroom - notice that the oh-so-elegant toilet is at an angle... that's so that the door can close. I'm not a big person, and my ass won't even fit in there. Oh well, it's only a couple days.

After glancing at the map, I figured out that my dad's hometown was only about 30 minutes out of my way so I dropped by Glen Rock, NJ. Wow... Talk about suburbia :) Paterson, NJ which is right next door was fairly scary and looked like a pretty rough neighborhood.

As for Glen Rock, it's named for... well... a rock. Here's the rock.

My dad gave me the address of his childhood home and I promised some pics so here they are!

(sorry for the crapiness of the pictures. the sun and the trees of suburbia made it tough to get good ones.)

And his grandmother lived next door.... his house is on the left, hers is on the right.

my shaved kitty

2008-08-22T17:17:00.000-05:00

it's kitty porn!!!

Before...

After...

Ain't she cute????????

:)

derek

oddest things... oddest places

2008-07-05T15:44:00.000-05:00

saw this in the Syracuse, NY area - perhaps it's a question that you shouldn't have to ask...

Recent travels...

2008-07-04T12:02:00.001-05:00

So here are some of the trips I've taken this year:

Trip #1
Houston

Trip #2
Pittsburg -> Altoona, PA -> State College, PA

Trip #3
Albany, NY -> Schenectady, NY -> Cohoes, NY with a side trip to the Catskill Mts to see Kate Peirson's Motel :)

Trip #4
Buffalo, NY - Rochester, NY -> Syracuse, NY

Trip #5
Las Vegas, NV

Trip #6 (with George)
Detroit, MI -> Flint, MI -> Toledo, OH with a side trip to Windsor, ON CANADA!!

Trip #7
Chicago, IL -> Bettendorf, IA -> Des Moines, IA -> Omaha, NE -> Lincoln, NE

I'll add some details soon... the oddest things happen in the oddest places!

Maybe there is a use for this thing...

2008-05-25T22:19:00.000-05:00

George has suggested that I turn my blog into a diary of my more interesting travel experiences.

Recent happenings...

Hookers, airports, and the random road-side sightings

Any interest in hearing the stories?

going full circle....

2007-08-27T04:46:00.001-05:00

ya know how this whole thing started as a way to document "the transition to west coast living"? well, that's not necessary any more...

This little journey has come full circle - and in less that 12 hours we'll be on the road back to where it all started :)

enjoy!

Derek

Today's video:

why do all foreign language study programs suck?

2007-07-25T15:39:00.002-05:00

i've been looking at a few foreign language cds, software, etc and they all suck! they all seem to be lacking something.

Rosetta Stone is pretty rockin' for western languages that use the same basic sentence structure, but sucks for eastern/asian languages. Since it's completely immersive, and there are NO lessons, pattern recognition and analysis is absolutely necessary for this package.

Pimsleur Audio is pretty good all around, but requires a good ear to hear the subtleties. They include a very tiny amount of written material to go along with the audio making it a little tougher on the visual folks. Their handling of eastern/asian languages seems a little clearer than Rosetta stone, if only because they explain the sentence structure instead of making you suss it out for yourself.

I've been playing with the Pimsleur Japanese program, but like i said, the written portion sucks, so i might use this space for working out the written portion of the language if i stick with it. Don't think i've gone crazy if you start seeing stuff in Japanese on here :)

Today's video:

yep... things are changing... but slowly.... and in a dark and forboding way....

2007-07-23T01:29:00.001-05:00

wow - that sounded menacing, huh? :) so here's the run down...

1. work - my territory was expanded this week. you know that big river that runs down the middle of the country? yeah, the mississippi river. now go left to that big bit of water - the pacific ocean. all that land in between - that's my territory. freaking hell - half the country is mine!!! ah the power... the power!!!

2. more work means more money, right? we can only hope. interestingly, my company has increased my territory and a proposed salary increase to go with it. but they won't tell me what that increase is! "we don't want to say what it will be until it's been approved."

3. more territory means... a move? maybe. honestly, the "center of gravity" for my territory has moved much farther east, but since i can do my job from anywhere, then we could stay right where we are, and my company would still be happy. the cost of living and real estate make this area less appealing - the only things holding me back from just saying "head 'em up, and move 'em out" is the food and the weather. but is that enough to give up a retirement savings?

Today's video:

www.ForBetterLife.org

2007-07-21T00:54:00.000-05:00

Here's a commercial put out by an odd little foundation call "For a Better Life". Great commercials and billboards with some gentle reminders that you can make a difference in the world.

Interestingly, it's funded by anonymous trust and it's completely non-religious. The foundation accepts NO donations, and has no other function than to advertise these commercials and try to make a difference. I'll post a new one every day or so, but you can find out more here...

obsessive compulsive

2007-06-26T11:21:00.000-05:00

hi my name is derek and i am a completionist.

i am a marketers dream - i get focused on something and decide that i MUST have the complete set. volume 2 issue 73 was crap? i don't care! gimme gimme gimme! i CAN'T have a gap between issues 72 and 74!

lately my fascination has been with Kate Pierson - you know... the redhead from the B-52s. did you know that she had projects outside of B-52s? did you know that she had a solo album that was never released? did you know that she had a semi-solo project with J-pop star Yuki in Japan called NiNa featuring members of the Plastics?

NiNa - can't find it in the States - gotta order that one from Japan for almost 40 bucks! i haven't even heard all of it although i finally heard one track on one website and figured out that one track was used in some anime.

mog.com

More about this song

Link to NiNa - Aurora Tour If the player above doesn't work, click this link then click the Play button below the album cover

Link to "Arc the Lad" credits- Happy Tomorrow

enjoy :)

derek

WoW

2007-06-20T00:57:00.001-05:00

as i have been getting crap about playing WoW - "World of Warcraft" to those who are not cool like me - i decided i would look up the WoW episode of South Park.

any apparent similarities to someone you might know is purely coincidental and shall not reflect poorly on said person :)

South Park - Make Love, Not Warcraft

Add to My Profile | More Videos

derek

about the donuts...

2007-06-06T11:40:00.000-05:00

i forgot to tell you about the donuts! yes, the one on the left has Crunch Berries - as Cap'n Crunch Crunch Berries :) the one on the right is "Mango Tango" which has mango pudding filling and TANG on top!

There was also a maple bacon donut, that had maple icing and slices of bacon on top.

well, today is the big day for george... i'm sure there will be a post of nothing but EEEEE's coming soon:)

derek

wait... how does this work again???

2007-06-05T01:38:00.000-05:00

i think i forgot how to do this... do i type here? we'll see :)

yes - it's been a while and i don't promise that i will be posting daily, but you might see some updates on here. someday... sometime :P

as george mentioned, we went driving around portland house shopping - kind of. not really, but scouting areas. 14 hours, 400 miles, in a Flexcar - http://www.flexcar.com/ - We got a Honda Civic Hybrid to see how they stack up and the verdict is: not bad. It will get up and go if poked in the ass with a big stick. 44.5 MPG in a mix of city and highway driving. 10 gallon tank makes fill-ups about $33 right now. The weirdest thing was the engine turning itself off and on

and we saw a parade AT NIGHT!!! i agree that there should be more parades at night - my favorite had to be the Last Regiment of Syncopated Drummers---- > http://www.lastregiment.com/

and we had donuts - http://voodoodoughnut.com/faq.html

and here are the donuts:

and

2007-04-12T20:40:00.000-05:00

ok... i'm back

2007-04-03T20:06:00.000-05:00

lots of things have kept me from posting lately -

1. Travel to Montana
2. Travel to Sacramento
3. Travel to San Jose
4. Travel to Portland
5. Keeping my mouth shut about george's surprise Police Tickets... for a whole month!
6. Other topics that are not ready for public consumption - I promise I will reveal them when I can confirm one way or the other if they are happening!

ah... the tickets to see the Police... I'm pretty proud of that one... the first concert in the US is in Seattle and I GOT TICKETS for george! Sold out concert? Pshaw! not for me! Floor seats on row 19 along with a VIP package including a Pre-concert party and gifty bag only available to VIPs.

Do I rock or what? :)

my comments re: global warming / "an inconvenient truth"

2007-03-13T14:26:00.000-05:00

First off - I want to say thank you to Bonnie and Kelly for loaning their copy of "an inconvenient truth" to me. I really enjoyed it... although perhaps not for the reason that it was intended :)

I enjoyed it mostly as a political/marketing piece. I TRIED to go into it with an open mind, but I just couldn't get past the political pleas, and the dramatic marketing of ideas. I'm not going to call it a fluff piece, but it was definitely one-sided.

I have always had one main question: Has the planet ever been warmer than it is today? Did that occur prior to the industrialization of society? If so, then how can we DEFINITIVELY say that climate is changing in a way that is outside of the planets normal bounds?

Granted, my question is a very simplistic question, but it gets to the root of the problem and reveals that the environmentalist movement is focused on 2 things: a romanticized notion of agrarian society, and that they believe that humans are important.

#1 - Humans are not important to this planet. the planet couldn't care less whether we exist and in many ways would be better off if we DIDN'T exist. Humans are only important to humans. Want to save the planet? quit having babies!
#2 - the good old days.... weren't all that good! life expectancy of 40 years and some of the nastiest living conditions you can imagine.

Now then, before you think I'm a republican preaching "PAVE THE PLANET!" let me say a couple things. I hate inefficiency. a process that is wasteful is just plain wrong in my mind. Pollution without reason is insane. A coal power plant (running efficiently) that produces electricity to run a steel factory is fine with me. That steel plant can produce a lot more "good" than the pollution the power plant is putting out.

But, again - I want to point out that efficiency is key. I'm a bit curious how things in manufacturing plants could be changed to improve efficiency. for example, in a steel factory - a tremendous amount of heat is produced. a lot of that heat(energy) is lost to the air inside of the plant. that air has to be allowed out of the building in order to keep the place cool enough to work in. so here's my question: could the rising air (hot air rises, remember?) be used to spin a turbine which would produce electricity? definitely not enough to run the furnaces, but what about the computers? the overhead lights in the offices? the hot water heater for the bathrooms? warm the air for the offices in the winter? anything? just releasing that hot air into the atmosphere is wasteful and inefficient.

Back to my original question - has the planet ever been hotter? I can hear it now... "ok, smartypants, let's run with your idea. what if man is accelerating a normal change beyond what we can survive?" As george would say... "Evolve faster!" learn to cope with a changing planet or die off. once again, the romanticized notion that humans are important rears it's head.

and then there's this one: "ok, smartypants, let's run with your idea. if it is in the bounds of normal temperature ranges, it must have had some mechanism for cooling it's self down. could you survive that cataclysm?" why does it have to be a cataclysm? it doesn't unless you need emotion to make your argument.

"but what about the tufted-ear-dragging swallow of the northern reaches of the Saharan glacier - what if they die out?" ummm... species die. 99.9% of all species that have ever lived on this planet are extinct. if we take a conservative number of species of 10 million species on the planet right now, that means that 10,000,000,000 (that's 10 Billion) species have already died out and gone extinct.

in the interest of balance, I'd like to offer the following link. It is a program produced in the UK by the BBC and presents a different position on the idea of "climate change". At an hour and 13 minutes, I don't expect that many of you will watch it, but I will say that it makes some interest points and raising some questions that should be considered.

Link to BBC video

One final thought: it's quite troubling for me when the scientific community is so attached to an idea that they can't allow discussion/dissension. Recently, atmospheric scientists and climatologist have been shut out because of their skepticism of the "global warming" theory.

well, that's it for today...

derek

an update...

2007-03-13T02:44:00.000-05:00

nothing new to report on the work front :)

derek

wow - it's been a while...

2007-03-09T22:29:00.000-06:00

well -

it's been a while... sorry i've been so distracted. I'm in a point of flux at work, and there might be some large scale changes going on. Really, nothing bad should happen - but things might be changing for me at work. If it happens, I'll let everyone know. If not, well then there's no reason to freak everyone out.

a few things that have been going on lately:

i went to go see "Bodies - the Exhibition". pretty cool stuff! i think the best part form me was the fact that everything was "to scale". instead of looking at some picture that might have been shrunk/blown-up, everything was actual size. the coolest parts for me were the circulatory system parts. Bonnie and Kelly took me to the exhibit and joined me and george for lunch. They also supplied me with some the Al Gore movie - to which i will have to respond at some point. For now let's just say i was left unconvinced :)

we went to a book reading - a couple of authors Janice Earlbaum and Steve Almond. Held in an odd setting - The Tractor Bar in Ballard - it was an interesting mix of lesbians, chocolate lovers, jews, literary snobs, and erotica readers. The stale beer smell not withstanding, the evening was a lot of fun. George knew the author of Girlbomb in a roundabout you-know-a-girl-who-you've-never-met-but-have-talked-with-online-who-is-my-best-friend- but-lives-3000-miles-away kind of way. so we had to introduce ourselves :)

I'm planning my trip to Montana/Sacramento/San Francisco - I'll be gone for about a week at the end of the month, so george can have some time to herself around here.

not much else going on... I should know about the work stuff by the end of next week. I'll keep you posted!

derek

a conversation and a confession

2007-02-22T15:16:00.000-06:00

first the confession -

i've been sidelined due the britney spears saga that has enraptured me for the last week.
A partial britney time line:
In rehab.. out of rehab...
shaved head...
in rehab... out of rehab...
beat up k-fed's car with an umbrella
in rehab...

sigh... and the coolest part is that k-fed (being the responsible parent that he is... oh god, the irony...) won't let britney have custody of the kids! oh the humanity!

the conversation:

was with NyQuil as channeled by george. as you might have read recently, george is sick, and is currently up and walking/stumbling around only through the awesome power of the 'Quil.

by the by... the best glass of chocolate milk: a whole buncho of Hershey's Special Dark syrup in a shaker with milk. shake vigorously and chug!

derek

story will continue...

2007-02-15T03:47:00.000-06:00

but in the meantime, i'm playing with some different templates for my page. I'm really getting to like this one. i must have looked at 200-300 different templates before settling on this one.

it's simple, clean, and has some color. the CSS is pretty easy to tweak as well - check out the templates here if you are looking for a change:

http://blogger-templates.blogspot.com/

:)

derek

i think i owe everyone an apology...

2007-02-13T19:53:00.000-06:00

the last 2 posts have been kind of cryptic, so i feel i owe everyone some details.

first off, mary came to visit us in seattle... did i post that? i dunno, but if i did, it bears repeating :) we really enjoyed having her around. it felt a little like we were living in the real world again. we did lots of stuff and she has been really good about documenting at her blog.

as for the second post, i had to go on a "due diligence trip". there is a company in phoenix, az that has a product for whom we will be signing a selling agreement. "due diligence" means that we go to see the company and look at their product and tear the thing apart looking for problems, liabilities, exaggerations, etc. they can be really boring, but these guys made it fun!

we started off by flying into phoenix on thursday. we dropped our crap at the hotel and then headed out to a sushi bar for... well... sushi and cocktails. by the by, nori (seaweed) wrapper does not sit well with me, but i've learned that there is also a soy wrapper that is yummy. if you don't like sushi because of the seaweed wrapper try the stuff with a soy wrapper - it's very subtle and non-offensive.

well, sushi is not very filling, so we headed out to ruth's chris steakhouse for real food. the special that evening was a 16oz ribeye cut of buffalo, so that's what i had....... mmmmmmmmm.... REALLY red meat... desert for me was the "grand marnier flight" (samples of 3 different kinds of grand marnier: traditional, 100 year centraire, and 150 year centraire) which was de-lisc-ious!

so i met up with a couple of my coworkers afterward and headed out to... a... ahem... gentleman's club. The other guys got wasted and gave away about $500 between the two of them. me? i enjoyed the show that they were putting on... and the ladies as well :) my hotel bed welcomed me at about 2 am.

the next morning started early (for me:) ) at about 8am began with breakfast followed by a helicopter flight. I'll finish up the story tomorrow, but here are some pics to enjoy :)

sorry...

2007-02-12T17:41:00.000-06:00

sorry folks... I've been distracted for a bit. I'll post again this evening, but in the meantime here's a sampling of what's to come...

Depart on Thursday
Arizona
Sushi Bar
Buffalo Steak
Strip Club
Helicopter ride
Work
18oz Filet Mignon
Dance club
Return on Saturday

I miss Mary...

2007-02-03T14:31:00.001-06:00

That is all...

derek

Belligerent Pedestrians piss me off

2007-01-20T01:30:00.000-06:00

i've got nothing against pedestrians. as a matter of fact, i'm more pedestrian now than have been in a long time. but these seattle pedestrians are something else... they're belligerently pedestrian.

Without regard for traffic, they just step off the curb. Walk/Don't Walk - doesn't matter. and god forbid you get caught with your rear bumper hanging in a crosswalk - i've seen pedestrians hit cars for being in the crosswalks.

got a green light? wait for the stupid pedestrians to finish crossing the street before you get to go.

i'm done with these jerks... i've started getting belligerent right back - but i've got two thousand pounds of metal backing me up. still in the crosswalk when my light turns green? you're getting 150 decibels in your ear from my horn until you move - and my bumper is moving in your direction too! Crossing against the light? i'm hitting the gas!

i need to get a "cattle catcher" installed - that way the idiot pedestrians just get thrown to the curb when they get in my way.

and now for something completely different...

snow in the northwest leads to pinball.... with cars

2007-01-16T20:54:00.000-06:00

check out this video of how folks in Portland, OR play pinball in the snow :)

Click to watch Video

Here's some video of what the snow was like around george's work

Linky-Dink...

:)

derek

thinking of someone in particular here....

2007-01-02T19:24:00.001-06:00

is this about you?

maybe!

derek

choosing to forget

2007-01-01T18:05:00.000-06:00

A few weeks ago I posted about forgetting the past. I asked the question: how would your world be different if you couldn't remember yesterday?

How about a different question: how would your world be different if you could CHOOSE what to remember and choose what to forget?

People have this innate tendency to leave their thoughts to chance. We can't change the past, but what if we could change the way we perceive the past? Do you have a thought that always seems to ring out in your head? Like a cd player stuck on repeat, you always hear a voice saying the same thing - sometimes whispering, sometimes shouting... but always saying the same thing. What if you could turn the volume down on that voice?

Perhaps that's too esoteric.

What if you could choose to remember differently? Ever been out to eat and at the end of the meal found that something you don't like was in it? I don't like mushrooms, but i couldn't tell you how many I ate in the spring rolls at the chinese place where we had dinner on x-mas eve. I didn't see the mushrooms until I was almost done with the last spring roll. Did that change the fact that I had eaten 3 spring rolls and liked them? No - not in the least. Did I get sick? no - i was a little surprised by the slice of mushroom, but didn't get sick.

In that situation, i was confronted by the question - was I hating mushrooms out of habit and memory? I think so...

So I tried something else. 2 nights ago, george and I were at a Vietnamese restaurant with a couple of new friends. I ordered my dinner and I was a little surprised to see large slices of onion in it. For me, onions are something to avoid - carmelized diced onions in a suace is one thing, but decent sized slices, that were barely cooked were something to be maneuvered around and gently moved to the side of the plate. But in that moment, i decided to make a choice: forget any previous experience with onions, and eat my meal as though I had never had an onion before.

The meal was excellent! I enjoyed all of it - except for the tomatoes - I wasn't ready to eat the tomatoes yet. Hey... I'm not a miracle worker here... I'm working through this slowly... one vegetable prejudice at a time.

But, I did prove to myself that memories can be forgotten... and if one memory can be forgotten, can't any memory be forgotten?

derek

I love TED!

2006-12-18T16:47:00.000-06:00

a couple days ago, i just ran across something called TED. it's a conference about Technology, Entertainment, and Design - hence it's called TED. more info: http://tedblog.typepad.com/tedblog/2006/01/ted2007_icons_g.html

each year, they hold a conference where all kinds of speakers are invited from a variety of fields to speak on that year's theme. the video of Malcolm Gladwell that i posted a couple days ago was from TED2004. TED2007 in March will have people like Bill Clinton, They Might be Giants, Richard Branson (of Virgin fame), Thomas Dolby, and various others. Past speakers have included Al Gore, Burt Rutan (X Prize winner), Einstein the talking Parrot, Peter Gabriel, Bono, Eve Ensler, Jennifer Lin (14 year old Pianist).

for me, a collection of folks like this is incredible. to hear these kinds of people speak about their passions, their world, and the way they see things is just inspiring. If you have a chance check out the videos of previous TED's: http://www.ted.com/tedtalks/

If anyone wants to give me a REALLY good birthday present - tickets to TED2007 would be greatly appreciated!

derek

this is as close to christmas as i get...

2006-12-16T19:33:00.000-06:00

this one is especially for mary... who's never seen it!

enjoy!

derek

a little sum-sumtin for george

2006-12-15T14:33:00.000-06:00

Malcolm Gladwell was speaking in Tulsa the night I arrived, but I was too late to see him speak. So, here's a clip that you might like that explains how/why products have changed over the last 20/30 years.

derek

ps - i just realized that the fascination that george and i have for retail, sociology, and marketing may not be the same as everyone else. i'm a geek - i know it. perhaps you're a geek and don't know it. either way - enjoy the video :)

to be filed under "duhhhh"

2006-12-04T23:32:00.000-06:00

What American accent do you have? Your Result: The Midland "You have a Midland accent" is just another way of saying "you don't have an accent." You probably are from the Midland (Pennsylvania, southern Ohio, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, and Missouri) but then for all we know you could be from Florida or Charleston or one of those big southern cities like Atlanta or Dallas. You have a good voice for TV and radio.
The West
Boston
North Central
The Inland North
Philadelphia
The South
The Northeast
What American accent do you have? Take More Quizzes

a week of travel

2006-12-04T09:48:00.000-06:00

well.... i've got to clean up the loose ends that someone else at work has left for the end of the year and can't get done by 12/31. But the good news is that I get to work in some fun time too.

So it's:

Wednesday - Arrive in Houston
Thursday - Do presentation and then Fly to Tulsa
Friday - Dentist appt
Sat/Sun - fun and frolic with friends and family
Monday - Arrive in Kansas City
Tuesday - Do audits and then Travel Back to Seattle.

That should be the end of travel for the rest of the year... but there is the chance that i'm going to have to clean up some more laziness by 12/31. oh well, it's almost done for the year...

derek

POST 101!!!

2006-11-30T17:20:00.000-06:00

Wow... what a long strange trip it's been...

now for a documentary...

Enjoy!

what is beauty?

2006-11-26T21:44:00.000-06:00

Link to story...

Which do you think is the true beauty? both photos are from a UK competition where the model in the top was told that she was too fat (a size 12). the model in the lower photo was told that she had a great figure with a BMI of 16.1 (a BMI of ~15 is considered starvation levels, while a BMI of 20-25 is considered "normal").

what the hell?

the good news is that the twig lost. :)

what if....

2006-11-25T03:13:00.000-06:00

what if you couldn't remember yesterday? or the day before? or anything that has happened in the past? how would your world change?

let's assume that you don't forget what you have learned about physical pain and dangers - a hot stove burns, a knife cuts, etc. but what if you forgot about all of the things that have emotionally hurt you in the past? all of the "baggage"?

how much of our current actions and thoughts are governed by our baggage?

our baggage can include more than just our emotional pain... what if it includes those things that we think bring us "pleasure"? what about the things that aren't good for us, but that we are none the less attracted to? how many things have we defined (in even the loosest sense) as "fun" that are merely addictions to some memory?

for example... i hate to dance. it's not bad for me, but i don't feel comfortable doing it. is that because of the time when i was 6 years old and forced to dance with a girl in kindergarten? what if i couldn't remember that? what if i couldn't feel that embarrassment today like it happened yesterday?

i also have to wonder about the people who thrive on drama. what connection to yesterday makes them seek out more drama? how would their lives be different if they couldn't remember yesterday?

i wonder how i would be different today if i couldn't remember yesterday. how would you be different?

hmmm?

(thanks go out to my little roommate in redondo beach for the suggesting that i watch "what the bleep do we know?" - check it out if you can!)

derek the guru with all the answers... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... NOT!

2006-11-16T13:53:00.000-06:00

soulfusion asked for my answers to my own questions:
I dunno... i think that for the vast majority of people (myself included), the person that they are today is a slow evolution of/de-evolution from who they were. I really doubt that most people consciously control or mold the person they are. if they do, they are minor choices that create larger effects over time unconsciously. oh... and there is nothing wrong with Rabbinical answers! :)

mary asked if i would recognize her:
i think so... the test would be for me to meet Pam and compare notes :)

i believe that i am more myself today than i was 3 or 5 years ago. am i comfortable in my own skin? not yet. as days go by, i regret things i do less and less. not because i am amoral, but that my actions are filtered through my ethics more and more. have i consciously become who i am today? no, but i am actively trying to guide myself. do i regret who i am, was or fear who I will be? well, i consciously made choices over the years that have put me on a certain path which i am happy with.

how's that for an answer... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...NOT!

Would someone recognize you?

2006-11-14T13:55:00.000-06:00

I was having dinner with a dear, dear friend in Hell-A last week - a small bright spot of humanity in an otherwise hellacious place. During our wandering conversation, she commented, "you never met the dependent gotta-have-a-man version of me, did you?"

that made me think of something... if a friend who met you this year was talking about you to someone you knew 1,2,5 or 10 years ago, would they realize they were talking about the same person (YOU)?

would you rather they know the person you are now or the person you were? is there anything wrong with being the same person you were 10 years ago? have you consciously changed over the years, or has it been an unconscious slide into your current form? or is that now you are closer to your true self - kinda like peeling an onion and exposing new parts?

just a thought that has been rattling around in my skull.

something is in the air

2006-11-12T19:04:00.000-06:00

lately i've been feeling a little odd - a certain level of optimism... of opportunity... of energy... almost in a twitchy adrenaline kind of feeling. i feel like something is just around the corner - something's going to happen.

something is going to change my life.

this isn't dread - this isn't negative.

you know that feeling as you come to the top of the first drop on a roller coaster? you know what's coming, but as you look out to the side of the car you can see farther than you thought and the view is incredible. the tension is there slapping you in the face, but you know the ride is going to be a blast!

the question is... WHAT's coming?

have you ever felt this way? what happened?

welcome to the hotel california...

2006-11-08T23:40:00.000-06:00

i am in LA (Hell-A).... i am in the suburbs of Hell-A in orange county. the haze in the air is a dirty burnt orange and the smell is like brimstone...

and to top it all off... My hotel room is # 666. seriously... no joke...

...you can check check out any time like... but you can never leave...

uh oh....

3 odd things

2006-11-08T00:46:00.000-06:00

odd thing #1 - "a shot for me... and a shot for the fishes"
i've been giving my fish vodka. yes - seriously, i've been adding vodka to the fish tank lately. recently my tank has developed a problem with red hair algae. it's kind of pretty until it takes over the tank. when i have a problem in my tank i usually try to find a natural fix for whatever is wrong. well, the "natural" fix this time is to add vodka to the tank every day. the theory is that there is a high level of nitrates in the water feeding the algae, so you get rid of the nitrates and the algae starves out. well, it's almost impossible to filter out the nitrates, but there are bacteria in the tank that feed on the nitrates as well. if you add vodka to the tank, the carbon in the vodka kicks the bacteria into overdrive, and they eat the nitrates before the algae can. the bacteria are easily filtered out with a protein skimmer, so the end result is a lower level of nitrates. each day, i've been adding 5ml of vodka (about 1/6 of an ounce) and the tank is loving it! the fish are happy (can fish get drunk?) and the algae is going away :)

odd thing #2 - eyeglasses over the internet.
yep - you really can buy anything over the internet, included eyeglasses - and they are cheap! i bought a pair of prescription glasses for $25.99 - delivered! that's almost getting to the point of disposable! the last time i bought glasses they were about $250 AFTER the 50% off coupon. for almost one tenth of the price i got a pair of glasses with everything that they $250 had - lightweight plastic lenses with anti-reflective, UV and scratch resistant coatings. You can also get them as SUNGLASSES as well! how many of us who wear glasses have had to forgo sunglasses because we can't afford ANOTHER $250 for a pair of prescription sunglasses? at 26 bucks, who cares! buy a couple! want to be a real geek? get transition lenses for $33! now in the interest of full disclosure, these glasses are not perfect. the fit and finish is just slightly off. there is a very minor gap between the lens and the frame at the corners. george didn't notice it looking at me, and i only noticed it as i was first inspecting the glasses. i got a semi-rimless frame, so there is a wire that goes into a groove along the bottom edge of the lens. on one of the lenses that grove isn't perfectly centered. you will have to do some adjusting of the frames when you get them to get the lenses centered over your eyeballs. but really - for $26 - who cares! call your optometrist, get your prescription and order some glasses online. Delivery takes about 3 weeks. http://www.goggles4u.com/

odd thing #3 - my "work from home support group" has started
so, i put up a post on craigslist looking for other people who work from home and need to get out and socialize - and people responded! 10 people have signed up for my yahoo group and we have set up a coffee social for this saturday :) george calls it the "home-schooled kids club". we'll see how it goes.

Well - this will have to satisfy you for the next few days. i've got to go to los angeles for wednesday and thursday.

:)

it's raining, it's pouring...

2006-11-06T16:49:00.000-06:00

i haven't been here too long, so when i noticed that it had been raining for a few days, i just soggily chalked it up to the rainy season. But, i was just reading that they are having flooding in the Seattle area. Whaaa?

http://www.kirotv.com/weather/10233246/detail.html

for any that are concerned, we are on top of First Hill. Elevation: 400 something feet above sea level. literally, no matter which direction you come from, you have to go steeply uphill to get here.

so for us to get flooded, the animals would have to be going 2 by 2 down the street.

just a friendly update :)

Factoid: This area is also known as Pill Hill for all of the hospitals and medical centers that are around here.

starting a support group

2006-11-05T15:30:00.000-06:00

i've decided to start a support group for people that work from home. here's the problem with working from home: the lack of coworkers, socialization, and general human interaction.

i've noticed a marked decline in my personal hygiene. not all the time... but when my commute is approximately 20 feet from my bed to my desk, the need to brush my hair, etc just kind of falls by the wayside. Now don't get me wrong, if i'm leaving the house, i will make myself presentable. but if i'm just working at my computer and there's no one to see me but the cats, then i might just brush my teeth and let it go at that.

and there's no one to go out and socialize with. no one to go out to happy hour with. no one to correct my dangling prepositions.

any way... if any one from the seattle area works from home and is looking for a social group... check it out:

Click to join SeattleWorkFromHome

i'm yelping

2006-11-05T04:33:00.000-06:00

check out Yelp.com - community reviews of anything you could think of.

here's a link to my reviews: http://derekt.yelp.com/

pretty durn cool if you ask me!

derek

totally stolen from tanya's myspace page...

2006-11-03T23:59:00.001-06:00

yikes - this makes me look schizophrenic...

Your Political Profile:

Overall: 55% Conservative, 45% Liberal

Social Issues: 75% Conservative, 25% Liberal

Personal Responsibility: 25% Conservative, 75% Liberal

Fiscal Issues: 100% Conservative, 0% Liberal

Ethics: 0% Conservative, 100% Liberal

Defense and Crime: 75% Conservative, 25% Liberal

How Liberal Or Conservative Are You?

cat poop

2006-10-30T13:24:00.000-06:00

here is my question for you... why is it that cat poop smells worse somedays and other days it's not so bad?

i mean they eat the same thing EVERY day. it's not like they went out for indian food in the middle of the night and now they are suffering from "the-day-after-curry hurry."

and if they ARE sneaking out for indian food in the middle of the night, then i want to know where this all night indian place is!

derek

smarter than a rock

2006-10-23T15:59:00.000-05:00

back when i was doing jewelry for a living, we moved our shop from one location to another. in most business that's not a big problem - in the jewelry business you have safes. big safes... weighing hundreds of pounds - some weighing over a thousand.

we had to call in a specialty company to move the safes. i watched these guys move a safe weighing 700 pounds almost effortlessly. I was dumbstruck. in a conversation with the safe movers, one of them said: you will never be stronger than a safe, you have to be smarter than the safe.

be smarter than the safe... this is one of those things that has stuck with me for years.

here is a guy that is smarter than a rock... a really big rock!

derek

Anyone using SKYPE?

2006-10-21T23:03:00.000-05:00

I'm curious if anyone is using SKYPE? I've setup a SKYPE account, and I'm going to test it for a while and see if it's a viable subsitute for a land line.

Let me know and help me test this durn thing out!

Derek

ROCK ON!!!

2006-10-20T00:34:00.000-05:00

i have a soft spot for cellos....

and metal...

i LOVE these guys :)

ROCK ON!!!

derek

ugh... what a week

2006-10-17T02:11:00.000-05:00

basically, george and i barely had time to unload the truck and make a trip to IKEA before I had to get my butt to Boston for a conference.

alaska airlines has their hub in seattle, so flights out of seattle are pretty easy to get. i grabbed a red-eye leaving seattle at 1030pm tuesday night and landed in Boston at 730am wednesday morning. the flight was uneventful except for the guy that almost died about an hour into the flight. i was fighting to get a few hours of sleep and missed him hitting the floor, but the air waitresses, had him laid out infront of the bathrooms for about 2 hours. they had all the emergency medical gear out and checking him over. they got on the speakers and asked "is there a doctor or nurse in the plane?" he didn't die... he eventually went back to his seat. but this was all transpiring right behind my seat - not to mention blocking 3 of the 4 bathrooms on the plane.

of course the whole reason to go to these conferences is the food. not the actual conference food - that's crappy. but the dinners afterward are awesome. some of you have heard of my dinner in vegas... nothing could compare to that one, but these were pretty good. the first dinner was at Smith and Wollensky. I'd never heard of them, but they served me a 14 oz filet so they get big UPs from me :) the wine was decent, but not wonderful. a nice cabernet to match the filet, and a B&B with dessert - yummmmm. the appetizer was a tower of shellfish, which was a hit with everyone at the table but me.

the second dinner was good too, but not as good as the first one. the appetizers were much better, a little frou-frou (bites of filet served on a potato chip, crabcake bites, etc.) dinner was filet mignon (again?... sigh - if i must...) with asparagus and stuff. better wine this time though.

the flight back truely uneventful. i tried to sleep, but i was too keyed up... i was headed home to seattle where the george and the cats were - WOOHOO!

oh yeah... i did work while i was there... nothing exciting there though.

i had promised george that we would go to a couple of plays when i came back, so on Saturday i walked - yes WALKED - to the 1/2 price ticket office to get tickets to "THE UNDERPANTS" and "thom pain", but they were damn expensive! $22 each for 1/2 price tickets - i just couldn't do it... besides on Sunday they were doing a "Pay what you can" show for "the underpants." by the way... i'd swear that the guy behind the ticket counter at the 1/2 price place was Bill Murray. Dead ringer for him.

So sunday we went and bought our tickets for the Underpants, and had about 5 hours to kill due to a SNAFU with obscure scheduling traditions with the theatre - they don't do a "pay what you can" matinee on sunday during the first week of the show. every week after that? yes... but not the first week... grrrr.

so we went and had brunch at "la creperie viola!" and wandered the Pike Place Market - the place with the flinging fish! if you've ever seen a travel documentary on seattle, they always show the fish market where the guys fling the fish across the market. if you still haven't seen it.. then try this link: http://www.pikeplacefish.com/funstuff/dayswork.htm

ugh.... time to go to bed...

i'll let george fill you in on the rest of the story :)

derek

and the title stays the same...

2006-10-06T14:36:00.000-05:00

while living in LA i named my blog "sitting on the 405" because of the traffic jams and the number of times i sat doing nothing but inhaling deisel exhaust from the truck next to me while driving/sitting on the 405 highway.

i thought i might have to change the name of my blog once we moved up to Seattle. ah... but seattle has a 405 highway too! the difference is that you can drive on the 405 here!

woohoo!

i found my chococat bowl!

2006-09-29T12:14:00.000-05:00

in the immortal words of Hank and Karen Sue:

... on the road again....

i just can't wait to get on the road again...
i just can't wait to get on the road again...

on the road again...

mommy mommy gimme a dollar! it's the corn guy!

2006-09-22T19:25:00.000-05:00

mommy mommy gimme a dollar! it's the corn guy!

it must be fall in LA.

All summer long we've seen the various ice cream carts roaming the streets. little mexican guys with little push carts ringing a little bell. it's cute... in an odd sort of way.

but today.... oh, today... we have the CORN GUY! same kind of cart, but with steamed ears of corn! you walk up and ask for one and they grab a whole ear of corn on a stick! they slap a little mayo on it, then roll it in crumbly cheese (like a mexican parmesan) and then squirt butter on it. Top it off with a little chili powder and... WOWEEE! a snack on a stick!

it must be fall in LA.

:)

overwhelmed...

2006-09-21T01:03:00.000-05:00

sorry folks... i haven't posted in a while...

i've been overwhelmed trying to make the move to Seattle happen... and work... and pack... and be a good cat caregiver... and get a new business off the ground... and get clients taken care of... and be a good friend... and sell stuff... and rent out our current apartment... and figure out what to do with the extra car... and eat... and sign a new lease... and prepare my reps for the transition... and clean... and empty the litterbox...

and...

and...

and...

{sigh} it'll all be done soon... and then i can sleep.

it is true...

2006-09-07T13:00:00.000-05:00

since george has broken the news, I will confirm it.

We are moving! yes, both of us along with the cats :)

The direction... generally northerly.

The timing... soon

The reason... Suckifornia

Well, there were other reasons, but they make me feel like too much of an adult. We considered taxes, unemployment rates, along with the general political climate in making our decision. oh... and the weather too.

:)

a tip for getting a moving truck...

2006-09-02T03:32:00.000-05:00

if you are ever looking for a moving truck and think the price is too high, start looking at surrounding cities and get a quote based on leaving from a different city.

for example, if you are looking at moving from oh... say... Los Angeles, to ... uh.. maybe Seattle, the price is $1817, but the price from Oceanside, CA which is a 1 hour drive from LA, the price is $607.

That's $1210 to pay for gas, or put down as a deposit on a an apartment!

just a little hint from your friendly, miserly scrooge

:)

I'm an asshole...

2006-08-25T11:36:00.000-05:00

A-SS-HO-LE - everybody! A-SS-HO-LE

I'm going to admit it... Los Angeles has made an asshole out of me.

I've had the opportunity to get out of LA a couple time now, and this last time in Arizona, I figured out that I'm getting to be a jerk. On two separate occasions, as I was dealing somebody, I heard myself say something that was just asshole-ish. They didn't deserve it, and I had no right to say it. Asshole... pure and simple.

So, now I'm going to focus on remembering those things that I learned in the Midwest: Say "please" and "thank you", be kind to the people you meet, and realize that the person comes first and the business can wait.

It's time to get out of this god-forsaken place!

Arizona in August

2006-08-22T20:57:00.000-05:00

people kept telling me that i was crazy for going to Phoenix in August: "oh, it's gonna be 120 in AZ in August!"

as the plane was making the approach in PHX, i looked out the window and saw clouds! rain clouds! ah... clouds... those are pretty rare in LA.

After getting off the plane, i headed down to the avis counter to pick up the car that i reserved and guess what... they didn't have what i reserved. so instead they gave me a convertible... in Arizona... in August... in the rain...

Those bastards!

more competitive eating!

2006-08-18T13:30:00.000-05:00

I'm sorry to go on and on... check it:

http://www.ifoce.com/rankings.php

Out of the top 3 competitive eaters in the WORLD, 2 are itty bitty little asian chicks!

Number 1 - Takeru Kobayashi Record of note: Cow Brains: 57 (17.7 pounds) / 15 minutes

Number 3 - Sonya Thomas take note of her Turducken record! 7.75 pounds in 12 minutes!

go baby go!

Competitive eating in High Def TV

2006-08-18T12:49:00.000-05:00

Ok - as some of you know, our TV died last week. That brought on the search for a new TV. After much searching and budgetting, we were left without a TV.

But LO! on the internet! there was a shining beacon of hope... Staples had a LCD High Def TV (HDTV) on sale for $350. And out of the darkness came Office Depot with a $200 rebate on the same TV! Here's a little secret - Office Depot will pricematch Staples!

So, I took the flyer from Staples in Office Depot, and asked if they could match the price - why yes, yes we can. woohoo! I'll take one! In the back of my head, i'm thinking: hehe... This TV Starts at $550, pricematch down to $350, and the $200 rebate takes the price down to $150. Well actually with tax and the $8 "California Dispensing Tax" (BASTARDS!) my final cost will be $188 - WOOHOO!

Ok.. so we now have an LCD TV with HDTV - hook it up to the cable box, and VIOLA! we're watching TV in HD - beautiful!

now that we've had it for a couple of days, i've been watching some of the HDTV channels and there's some weird shit on there. besides the pretty nature stuff, this morning i came across "EATS OF STRENGTH" - a competitive eating show! All events are sanctioned by the IFOCE - the International Federation of Competive Eating.

http://www.ifoce.com/ - homepage
http://www.ifoce.com/contests.php - upcoming contests! join up!

There nothing quite like watching a big man try to eat 49 donuts in 8 minutes in HIGH DEFINITION! you can see the pain in his eyes, the dab of icing on his chin, the coffee stains on his shirt.

ah the glory of it all!!!

don't scratch!!!

2006-08-17T01:51:00.000-05:00

since i've got health insurance, i decided i needed to get an allergy test and figure what i can do about it.

this afternoon i had an appt with my allergist for my allergy test. do you know what they do to test for allergies? they have a bunch of needles which they stick in your back where each needle is infected with a specific allergen - weeds, pollens, molds, cats, etc.

so... after getting stuck 65 times with infected needles, i was left to stew in my itchiness for 15 minutes after being told if it itches - DON'T SCRATCH! don't scratch?! what the hell?! you know when some one tells you not to scratch something all you want to do is scratch it.

DON'T SCRATCH YOUR ARM! ok - so how many of you scratched your arm? ALL OF YOU, CAUSE THAT'S WHAT YOU DO WHEN SOMEONE TELLS YOU NOT TO SCRATCH! ARGH!

so 65 needles and 15 scratchless minutes later, the doctor came in an read off the results to the assistant. 60 positives, 5 negatives. I'm literally allergic to everything!

Pollen - Check
Weeds - Check
Molds - Check
Trees - Check
Foods - Check
Animals - Check

I should have checked the list for what i WASN'T allergic to - that would have been simpler.

i think i'm going to go scratch myself now...

baby steps... maybe even full on walking

2006-08-12T21:42:00.000-05:00

Well, Tarotpress.com is still moving forward. I have received the proofs from the printer, and forwarded them on to various artists around the world. It's interesting how this little project has put me in touch with people in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Hawaii, England, Japan and India.

The proofs are being well received and garnering wonderful comments on the forums... which is leading more contacts with more designers - WOOHOO! of course i'm dealing with artists here, and we all know how that is... they are all tempermental and march to the beat of some long lost drum played by an autistic OCD/ADHD drummer with Tourret's and a twitchy left hand.

I just wish I could actually just get a couple of decks up for sale!!! Oh well, slowly moving forwad is better than nothing right?

derek